Making the playoffs.

Division 1-AA differs from I-A in having a championship tournament. There have been calls to rename I-AA the "Championship Division" while I-A would be the "Bowl Division". Whether or not the name change ever comes into effect, the main goal of play in I-AA is to make the playoffs and compete in the National Championship game.

There are only three games left in the 2005 regular season, it is time to consider who is in and who is out of contention for the playoffs.

Matt Dougherty of The Sports Network has a tour-de-force article on I-AA playoff potentials here.

My own take on the A10 chances for playoff teams is as follows:

Out of contention are Rhode Island, Maine, Northeastern and Delaware.

Mathematically possible are JMU, Townson and Villanova. All these teams have three A10 losses. Each would need to win all their remaining games and also get some help with some losses from the front runners.

In the Catbird seat is New Hampshire. At 7-1 the Wildcats close with @Hofstra, Iona and Maine. UNH outclasses all three of those teams and play two at home. Maine is a rival and has turned up its offense lately. Hofstra has a dangerous offense. However UNH would have to loose all three to be out of the playoffs. Even one loss would give the Wildcats a home game for the playoffs...

Surprisingly, the Richmond Spiders may have the next easiest road to the playoffs. One loss will eliminate them, but they should easily out class VMI and Towson. Their season ending game against William & Mary should determine if they make the dance.

UMass only has two losses, but has by far the toughest end-game. The Minutemen play all three final games on the road against three tough opponents. UMass is 2-12 against Delaware in Newark. A game against I-A Army @ Army will not be easy and we close against high powered Hofstra. UMass has a loosing record (3-5) overall against the Pride. To get a home playoff game UMass must sweep all three games. One loss puts UMass on the road for the playoffs. Two losses and we are out.

William & Mary and Hofstra still have a shot at the playoffs. Each has three losses already, so each must win all their remaining games. Hostra has the tougher road with #1 UNH, #8 UMass and Northeastern (which can score a lot of points). The Tribe closes with JMU, Delaware and the pivotal game with Richmond.

My call:

1. UNH (a lock)
2. Richmond (this year's surprise team)
3. UMass (just barely)

Update 11/4/05.The Springfield Union has an article on sorting out the A10 playoff chances here

Update #2. Dave Coulson of I-AA.org has an article on making the playoffs here .