Interesting UFL Cup scenario: Group G to determine Global's fate

GLOBAL Fc fans who are worried that their team won't get to defend its title in the UFL Cup and gets booted out in the elimination round need to watch for the results of today's Group G game between Garuda and Manhur.

Now why would a game between two winless teams (Garuda, 0-2) and Manhur (0-1) matter?

Actually, there are five games that may affect Global's destiny, Loyola vs. Agila in Group B on Oct. 27, Pachanga vs. Cebu on Oct. 29, Lions vs. Baguio on Oct. 29, Garuda vs. Manhur on Oct. 26 and depending on that result, Manhur vs. S. Garden on Oct. 30.

But we should be realistic here and I guess everybody sort of expects how Pachanga vs. Cebu will end--I hope everybody gets proven wrong--and how Loyola vs. Agila will end too?

At four points, a Pachanga loss to Cebu means Global advances outright as the second qualifier in the Group of Death. A Loyola loss to Agila in Group B means all three teams finish with six points and the first wild card will surely go to the group. But can Agila, which lost to the Socceroos, beat Loyola? Baguio in Group A also has two games at hand, but on Oct. 29, they will face the Lions, a team that is chasing a spot in the KO stage. The Lions lost to the Nomads, 2-0, and the Nomads blanked Baguio, 9-0.


So, let's assume Global will finish third place, with four points and a plus two goal difference. So far, it is the best-ranked third placer,

Now, back to Manhur vs. Garuda.

Manhur lost to the Army, 4-0, but on Oct. 26, it will be taking on a Garuda team that lost to the same squad, 11-0.

If Manhur wins, it earns three points, putting it at a tie with Group G second placer Sunken Garden. Manhur only needs to draw Sunken Garden to make it as the second qualifier, since it has a healthier goal difference. If Manhur loses to Garuda, Global advances as the best third-placer. The next best, will still depend on the Oct. 30 match between Sunken Garden and Manhur.

Granted Manhur wins against Garuda on Oct. 26, its match on against Sunken Garden on Oct 30, will be crucial. A draw between Sunken Garden and Manhur puts them both at four points. (Update Oct. 26, Manhur has won against Sunken Garden)

One of them will be the second placer, the other, the next best third place team as no other third-place team aside from Global will finish with four points. That means, Laos, at 3 points, will be eliminated. No other third place team has a chance to finish with four points, unless Agila will draw Loyola and we will all draw the winning Lotto combination.

Now, if Garuda vs. Sunken Garden ends in a win, the winning team bags the second qualifier spot in the group, the loser is eliminated unless it has a better goal difference than Laos, which is at plus 1.